Tuesday, June 7, 2022

The End of the UNFCCC/IPCC Global Warming Meme is Confirmed by the Arctic Sea Ice .

The End of the UNFCCC /IPCC Global Warming Meme is Confirmed by the Arctic Sea Ice.

1.The Millennial Global Temperature Cycle.

Planetary orbital and solar activity cycles interact and combine to drive global temperatures. Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans there is a 12+/- year delay between these drivers and global temperature. The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is 0.058% by weight. That is one 1,720th of the whole atmosphere. It is inconceivable thermodynamically that such a tiny tail could wag so big a dog. The Oulu galactic cosmic ray count provides a useful proxy for driver amplitude. 

The statements below are supported by the Data, Links  and Reference in parentheses  ( ) at     https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html

A Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point (MSATP) was reached  in 1991/2.The correlative temperature peak and Millennial  Temperature Turning Point (MTTP ) was in 2004 as also reported in Nature Climate Change Zhang, Y., Piao, S., Sun, Y. et al. Future reversal of warming-enhanced vegetation productivity in the Northern Hemisphere. Nat. Clim. Chang. (2022) .(Open Access)

Earth passed the peak of a natural Millennial temperature cycle trend in 2004  and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700.

        Fig. 1: Trends in mean autumn air temperature at 2 m north of 25° N during the                       periods 1982–2003 and 2004–2018.

a, Trends in autumn (September–November) temperature during 1982–2003. b, Trends in autumn temperature during 2004–2018. c, Trends in mean autumn temperature anomalies during both periods. The air temperature data were obtained from the CRU Time Series 4.0. The black line in c indicates the mean autumn temperature over the whole region north of 25° N (NH), and the blue and red lines indicate the average autumn temperature over the CAs and WAs, respectively. *P < 0.1; **P < 0.05; ***P < 0.01. The black line in b represents the extent of the cooling areas. Maps in a,b were generated using ArcGIS (version 10.7). Copyright © 1995–2019 Esri.

 Short term deviations from the Millennial trends are driven by ENSO events and volcanic activity.

       Fig 2 Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron cycles and trends with the Hadsst3 temperature          trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)         

Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans the correlative UAH 6.0 satellite Temperature Lower Troposphere  anomaly was seen at  2003/12 (one Schwab cycle delay) and was + 0.26C.(34) The temperature anomaly at 05/2022 was +0.17C (34).There has been no net global warming for the last 18 years. 

The Oulu Cosmic Ray count shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.The MSATP at 1991/2 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay.  In Figure 2(5) short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El NinosThe had sst3gl temperature anomaly at 2037 is forecast to be + 0.05. 

The above statements are supported by the Data, Links  and Reference in parentheses  ( ) at     https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html

 2.Arctic Sea Ice Trends.

Fig. 3 Mean Sea Ice Extents 1979 - 2020  and years  2022 and 2004. 

The current sea ice extent is a reflection of current arctic temperature integrated with  previous years.
Sea ice declined from orange1979 -1990 to lowest Blue line 2011- 2020 av. as temperatures warmed and modifying ENSO events occurred.. By 06/04/2022 ,truncated blue line, ice extent has   recovered close to that of 2001 - 2010 , Black line, which is also very close to the 2004 lower Green line  extent for the same day of that year.

                      Fig.4 Arctic Sea Ice Extent 2022 -2015 and 2011,2010,2006 and 2005

On day 156 of 2022 Arctic Sea Ice was the 12th lowest since 1979 and 822,000 sq kms greater than the 21st century El Nino related peak in 2016,lowest Blue Line.

3. Arctic Sea ice volume. 
Average Arctic sea ice volume in May 2022 was 22,000 km3. This value is the 11th lowest on record for May.

4. Greenland Surface Mass Balance.




The accumulated SMB on June 22 2022 is greater than1981-2010 mean for that date. The September annual low projected from that trend is compatible with a Millennial sea level peak and turning point as suggested in section 4.

4. Sea Level.

 


                              Fig. 5 Sea Level   https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

It can now be plausibly conjectured that a Millennial sea level peak  will follow  the Millennial solar activity peak at 1991/92 . This may occur at a delay of one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle  i.e at 2021/22.   see Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (18).The rate of increase in sea level from 1990 - present was 3.3 millimeters/year. The net rate of increase from Sept 13th 2019 to  Jan 13/ 2022 in Figure  5  was 2.3mm/year. A possible Sea Level Peak and Turning Point may have been reached at Jan 13 2022 with an anomaly of  102.2 mm. Sea level fell to  100.8 mm by Feb 21st 2022. 

The conjecture will be strengthened if the fall continues for the rest of the year as is suggested by the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) May 2022


                                                         Fig.6  30 Day moving SOI

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña (cooling) while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño.(warming) Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. Values at May 01 2022 indicate a possible strong  La Nina in Sept/Oct this year  leading to cooling. Conversely ,the solar activity of cycle 25 is increasing towards a 2024/5 peak with possible warming - Fig.2 D. We will see which trend dominates the fall 2022 sea ice minimum.    http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=SOI

5. Basic Science Summary.

The anthropogenic CO2 Radiative Forcing concept on which the climate models’ dangerous warming forecasts are based is inappropriate for analyzing atmospheric temperature changes. Solar sourced energy flows in and out of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone provide the net negative feedback which has kept the earth within a narrow temperature range for the last 600 million years. The effects on temperature and climate of major meteorite strikes, periods of flood basalt outpourings , major volcanic eruptions and ENSO events are superposed on this solar sourced background. 

Most importantly the models make the fundamental error of ignoring the long- term decline in solar activity and temperature which will follow  the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 2. above.   The UNFCCC Renewable Energy Targets in turn are based on model forecast outcomes which now appear disconnected from any possible reality.

The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2704 are likely to be broadly similar to those seen from 996 – 1700+/- (Fig3,23,24 ) From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers more northerly extreme heat waves, droughts and floods and in winter more early fall and late spring frosts.

6. Energy Sources, Population Demographics and Sustainability.

Modern industrial civilization, especially in large Megacities, cannot function for long without continuous adequate power supply, and functional global food and basic resource supply chains. The 2021 Texas freeze killed about 200 people. Long lines for food and water provided a red-flag warning of the present dangers of a cooling world. The war in Ukraine has given us a preview of future trends which were already underway. After only a few months of war nations are forced to abandon their rapid move away from fossil fuels. Food insecurity, starvation, global poverty and income disparity increases  threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Cross border migration is out of control across the Rio Grande into the USA, and from West Africa via Libya to Europe and across the English channel. Loss of wildlife habitat to human habitation, cattle-ranching and ocean overfishing have accelerated species extinctions worldwide. Agricultural monocultures based on chemical fertilizer and insecticides have already decimated bird populations in the northern hemisphere.  Rosenberg et al 2019 in "Decline of the North American Avifauna" (39) says: "Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance ...Steep declines in North American bird populations parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally.”

  Zaichun Zhul et al 2016 (36) in Greening of the Earth and its drivers report “a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated Leaf Area Index (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area from 1982 - 2009. ………. CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend.” Policies which limit CO2 emissions or even worse sequester CO2 in a quixotic attempt to greenwash or mitigate these natural cycles would decrease agricultural food production and are antithetical to the goals of feeding the increasing population and bringing people out of poverty. The tropical rain forests and tropical oceans are the main source of the atmosphere's water vapor and the rainfall essential to life and agriculture on land. Potable and agricultural water supplies are now competing and stretched to their limits in many areas because of the demographics of global population increase. Temperature limits and targets as set in the Paris accords to ameliorate future temperatures are in practice useless when formulating policies relative to adaptation to the actual real world problems. These require more local inputs for particular coastlines, different major river basins and mountain range limited ecosystems.

The UNEP, IPCC and UNFCCC “consensus” scientific community’s unwarranted focus on future CO2 levels, and global warming mitigation via “net zero” energy policies has been adopted by most Governments, Mainstream Media, NGOs and leading politicians as the basis for climate and energy policy. Individual Governments will now decide where and how, given their different political systems and demographics, they will draw the line between accommodation for other species and natural ecosystems and food supply costs, poverty reduction, economic development and consumer consumption levels.

Humanity contends with all other species including COVID 19 and its variants in a Darwinian struggle for lebensraum. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science “consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to civilization has no empirical basis. The cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy. We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.



Friday, February 25, 2022

The Solar Activity - Global Cooling Trackers - April . 2022


The Solar Activity - Global Cooling Trackers - April.  2022


1. The Solar Activity - Global Temperature Correlation.

         Fig.1.Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron count Schwab cycles and trends with           the Hadsst3 temperature trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)         see References  in parentheses ( ) at https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.html

The  Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and Activity Peak  was reached in 1991.  Earth passed the peak of a natural Millennial temperature cycle in the first decade of the 21st century and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. 

Because of the thermal inertia of the oceans the correlative UAH 6.0 satellite Temperature Lower Troposphere  anomaly was seen at  2003/12 (one Schwab cycle delay) and was + 0.26C.(34) The temperature anomaly at 2022/03 was +0.26C (34).There  been no net global warming for the last 20 years. The Oulu Cosmic Ray count shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.The MSATP at 1991 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay.  In Figure 1(5) short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El Ninos. The had sst3gl temperature anomaly at 2037 is forecast to be + 0.05. 

2. Arctic Sea Ice. 

Arctic sea ice reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.88 million square kilometers (5.75 million square miles) on February 25. The 2022 maximum was the tenth lowest in the 44-year record.




                                                            Fig.2 Arctic Sea Extent   (NSIDC)



   Arctic sea ice extent for day 132  2022 was the thirteenth lowest on record for that day of any year.


                                       

3.Arctic Sea ice volume.

Average Arctic sea ice volume in April 2022 was 23,000 km3. This value is the 9th lowest on record for April,  about  2,300 km^3 above the  record set in 2017.  

 See Data at: http://psc.apl.uw.edu/research/projects/arctic-sea-ice-volume-anomaly/#:~:text=February%202022%20Monthly%20Update,mean%20value%20for%201979%2D2021.

 4.Sea Level

 


                              Fig. 3 Sea Level   https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/sea-level/

It can now be plausibly conjectured that a Millennial sea level peak  will follow  the Millennial solar activity peak at 1991/92 . This may occur at a delay if one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle  i.e at 2021/22.  Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (18).The rate of increase in sea level from 1990 - present was 3.4 millimeters/year. The net rate of increase from Sept 13th 2019 to Jan. 03 2022 in Figure  3 was 2.3mm/year. If sea level begins to fall  by end 2022 the conjecture will be strengthened.

5. Solar Activity Driver and Near term Temperatures

An indicator of temperatures for 5 - 6 months ahead is provided by the SOI graph.




                                                             Fig.4  30 Day moving SOI

Sustained positive values of the SOI above +7 typically indicate La Niña (cooling) while sustained negative values below −7 typically indicate El Niño.(warming) Values between +7 and −7 generally indicate neutral conditions. Values at May 01 2022 indicate a possible strong  La Nina in Sept/Oct this year  leading to cooling. Conversely , the solar activity of cycle 25 is increasing towards a 2024/5 peak with possible warming. We will see which trend dominates  September's  sea ice extension  and volume minima.

 http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Pacific-Ocean&pacific=SOI

Basic Science Summary 

The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2700 are likely broadly similar to or probably somewhat colder than those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 5.(.3) From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves, droughts and floods  and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and  late spring frosts. 

The IPCC -UNFCCC  "establishment" scientists  deluded first themselves, then politicians,  governments, the politically correct chattering classes and almost the entire UK and US media into believing that anthropogenic CO2  and not the natural Millennial  solar activity  cycle was the main climate driver. This led governments to introduce policies which have wasted trillions of dollars in an unnecessary and inherently  futile  attempt to control earth's temperature by reducing CO2.

Forecasts  will  be updated here as appropriate. To review the detailed data and the references  on which this cooling paradigm is based see the links below:

A :  http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2021/08/c02-solar-activity-and-temperature.htm

 Net Zero Threatens Sustainable development Goals. see References  in parentheses ( )

B : http://www.ijaos.org/article/298/10.11648.j.ijaos.20210502.12    The Impact of CO2,H2O and other Greenhouse Gases on Equilibrium Earth Temperatures

C : https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf   Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases

Solar "activity" Cycles.

Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent temperature data.

Solar " activity"   is the main driver of global temperatures at Millennial scales.  The Oulu Galactic Ray Count number integrates changes in Solar Magnetic field strength, Total Solar Insolation , Extreme Ultra Violet radiation, Interplanetary Magnetic Field strength, Solar Wind density and velocity, Coronal Mass Ejections, proton events, and  the geomagnetic Bz sign.  Changes in the GCR neutron count ("solar activity marker) then modulate cloud cover and thus albedo. (Iris effect)

 The periodicities pertinent to current estimates of future global temperature change fall into two main categories:

a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles. These control the glacial and interglacial periodicities and the amplitudes of the corresponding  global temperature cycles. 
b)  Solar activity cycles with multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales. 

 The most prominent solar activity/temperature  cycles  are : Schwab-11+/-years ; Hale-22 +/-years ; 3 x the Jupiter/Saturn lap cycle  60 years +/- :Gleissberg 88+/- ;  de Vries - 210 years+/-; Millennial- 960-1020 +/-;

Fig.5 (Fig 3) Northern Hemisphere 2000 year temperature reconstruction and a Millennial Temperature Turning Point. (MTTP). (23,24)

Because of the data quality, record length and methods used, the NH Christiansen et al 2012 series was selected as the "type reconstruction" to represent the NH trends. (22) The de Vries, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf minima are noted. Important volcanic cooling events are marked with a V.  An MTTP  occurs at about 990. The Millennial cycles are asymmetric with a 700+/- year down-leg and a 300 +/- year up-leg.

Fig 6 (Fig.4) The NRLTSI2 Solar Activity - CET Relationship 1600- Present (25,26,27)

In Fig.6 the Roth & Joos Cosmogenic Index (CI) is used as the emergent proxy for the solar activity driver of the resulting emergent global and NH temperature data.

The CI designation here integrates changes in solar magnetic field strength, TSI, EUV, IMF, Solar wind density and velocity, CMEs, proton events, the BZ sign and changes in the GCR neutron count which modulates cloud cover and thus albedo. 

 The effect on observed emergent behaviors i.e. global temperature trends, of the combined effect of these solar and GCR drivers will vary non-linearly depending on the particular phases of the eccentricity, obliquity and precession orbital cycles at any particular time.

Figure 6 (4) shows an increase in CI of about 2 W/m 2 from the Maunder minimum to the 1991 activity peak. This increase, together with the other solar "activity" variations modulate the earth’s temperature and albedo via the GR flux and varying cloud cover.

The emergent temperature time series trends of the combined orbital, solar and GCR drivers also reflect turning points, changes of state and important threshold effects created by the interactions of the underlying physical processes. These exogenous forcings are also simultaneously modulated by changes in the earth’s magnetic field and length of day.

The temperature increase since the 1680s is due to the up- leg in the natural solar " activity" Millennial cycle as shown by Lean 2018 "Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 AD" (ibid). Figure 6 (4) also shows the correlation between the CI driver and the Central England Seasonal Temperatures. (27). The 1650 – 1700 (Maunder), 1810 - 20 (de Vries/Dalton), and the 1890-1900 (Gleissberg) minima are obvious. The Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point (MSATP) at 1991 correlates with the Millennial Temperature Turning Point (MTTP) at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. 
The CET in Figure 6 (4)shows that this up-leg in the CET has an annual absolute temperature Millennial cycle amplitude of at least 16.5 +/- degrees C. Using the Millennial cycle lengths of Figure 5 (3) at least that same amount of future cooling from the 2004 high is probable by the winters of 2,680-2700 +/-. These temperature changes correlate very well with the changes in energy flow from the sun shown in Figure 7 C (5) without any measurable effect of C02 levels.

Fig 7 (5) Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron count Schwab cycles and trends with the Hadsst3 temperature trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)

The Oulu Cosmic Ray count shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant secular drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/- and a new solar activity minimum late in 2009.The MSATP at 1991 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. In Figure 7(5) short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El Ninos. The Millennial pattern can be projected forwards to 2037. The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2700 are likely to be broadly similar to or probably somewhat colder than those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 5.(3). From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves, droughts and floods  and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and  late spring frosts. 

Appendix - C02 

The "consensus"  IPCC models make the fundamental error of ignoring the long- term decline in solar activity and temperature following the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 1 (5)The amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is .058% by weight. That is one 1,720th of the whole. It is inconceivable thermodynamically that such a tiny tail could wag so big a dog. See in particular Refs B and C

The whole COP 26 Net Zero campaign is founded on the flawed assumptions and algorithms which produced the IPCC- UNFCCC model forecasts of coming dangerous temperature increases. Stallinga 2020 (4) concludes: " The atmosphere is close to thermodynamic equilibrium and based on that we...…… find that the alleged greenhouse effect cannot explain the empirical data—orders of magnitude are missing. ……Henry’s Law—outgassing of oceans—easily can explain all observed phenomena.” CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing (RF) arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures. Miskolczi 2014 (5) in “The greenhouse effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth's Atmosphere “says "The stability and natural fluctuations of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water.”