Thursday, August 19, 2021

Net Zero threatens Sustainable Development Goals

 

Abstract

This paper begins by reviewing the relationship between CO2 and Millennial temperature cycles. CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. Solar activity as represented by the Oulu cosmic ray count is here correlated with the Hadsst3 temperatures and is the main driver of global temperatures at Millennial scales. The Millennial pattern is projected forwards to 2037. Earth has just passed the peak of a Millennial cycle and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. At the same time, and not merely coincidentally, the earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science "consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to human civilization is clearly untenableThe cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy.  We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.   

 Net Zero threatens Sustainable Development Goals

 CO2 and Temperature

The mass of the atmosphere is 5.15 x 1018 tonnes. (1) The mass of atmospheric CO2 in 2018 was approximately 3 x 1012 tonnes. (2). Jelbring 2003  (3) in The “Greenhouse Effect as a Function of Atmospheric Mass “ says

“…the bulk part of a planetary GE depends on its atmospheric surface mass density..”

Stallinga 2020 (4) concludes: " The atmosphere is close to thermodynamic equilibrium and based on that we...…… find that the alleged greenhouse effect cannot explain the empirical data—orders of magnitude are missing. ……Henry’s Law—outgassing of oceans—easily can explain all observed phenomena.” CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing (RF) arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures.

Miskolczi 2014 (5) in “The greenhouse effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth's Atmosphere “says "The stability and natural fluctuations of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water.” Seidel and Da Yang 2020 (6) in “The lightness of water vapor helps to stabilize tropical climate” say These higher temperatures increase tropical OLR. This radiative effect increases with warming, leading to a negative climate feedback" The Seidel paper is based on model simulations.

Dinh et al 2004 (7)  in “Rayleigh-Benard Natural Convection Heat Transfer: Pattern Formation, Complexity and Predictability” made large scale experiments and numerical simulations based on the Navier- Stokes and energy equations to capture and predict the onset of, and pattern formation in Rayleigh-Benard thermal convection systems heated from below.

Eschenbach 2010 (8) introduced “The Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis - how Clouds and Thunderstorms Control the Earth’s Temperature”. Eschenbach 2020 (9) in https://whatsupwiththat.com/2020/01/07/drying-the-sky  uses empirical data from the inter- tropical buoy system to  provide a description of this system of self-organized criticality in which the energy flow from the sun into and then out of the ocean- water interface in the Intertropical Convergence Zone  results in a convective  water vapor buoyancy effect and a large increase in  OLR This begins when ocean temperatures surpass the locally critical sea surface temperature to produce Rayleigh - Bernard convective heat transfer.

Figure 1 One day's Solar Energy Record (9 ibid)

The short-term energy flows involved in this process provide the negative feedback which has been the earth's natural thermostat since the Cambrian. This mechanism is further elucidated by Mulmenstadt J. Salzmann M. et al 2021 “An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes” (10 ) says “As the atmosphere warms, part of the cloud population shifts from ice and mixed- phased (cold) to liquid (warm) clouds. Because warm clouds are more reflective and longer lived, this phase change reduces the solar flux absorbed by the earth and constitutes a negative feedback.)

Hansen et al NASA 1981 in “Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide” (11) reviewed the data bases, algorithms and forward projections of six simple GCMs says:

"The global warming projected for the next century is of almost unprecedented magnitude. On the basis of our model calculations, we estimate it to be 2.5°C for a scenario with slow energy growth and a mixture of non-fossil and fossil fuels…… the predicted global warming for a given CO2 increase is based on rudimentary abilities to model a complex climate system with many nonlinear processes." 

The Scientific Report of the1985 UNEP organized Villach meeting (12) said:

"..... unequivocal, statistically convincing detection of the effects of changing CO2 and trace gas levels on climate is not yet possible.” yet, based on this report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was set up, to examine the human contribution to global warming.

The First IPCC Assessment Report 1990 - Policymaker Summary of Working Group I science section (13) stated: " ...The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more." In spite of this lack of empirical evidence the 1992 Rio meeting produced the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Agenda 21 (14). Agenda 21 was designed as an action plan with the aim of keeping greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that was supposed to prevent dangerous man-made global warming. The IPCC AR5 SPM says in Footnote 16 page 16 (15): No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.” The claim was nevertheless made that the UNFCCC actions proposed in Agenda 21 can control temperature by controlling CO2 levels.  

Fyfe et al 2016 in "Making sense of the early 2000s warming slowdown" (16) say: "Newly identified observational errors do not, however, negate the existence of a real reduction in the surface warming rate in the early twenty-first century relative to the 1970s–1990s. Hansen et al 2018 in “Global Temperature in 2017” (17) said "However, the solar variability is not negligible in comparison with the energy imbalance that drives global temperature change. Therefore, because of the combination of the strong 2016 El Niño and the phase of the solar cycle, it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus.”

 

Astronomical and Solar Activity Cycles

 

Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. It is essential that the scale and granularity of the space- time data base selected for analysis be appropriate to the problem under investigation.

Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 pp 452,453, 458 (18) in “The Suns Orbit A.D.750 -2050.” provided the key commensurability relationships of planetary orbits and lap periodicities.  They regard the Saturn Jupiter Lap cycle of 19.859 years as "the pulse of the solar system." The added influence of Uranus and the other planets results in a synchronized system controlled by emergent combined astronomical and solar activity periodicities of 3 x 19.859   = 60 +/- years. and 16 or 17 x 60 = 960 - 1020 years. Three times the Uranus Saturn Jupiter lap periodicity = 953.2 years.

 Stefani et al 2019 (19) in "A Model of a Tidally Synchronized Solar Dynamo" focusses on the Schwab 11.0 +/- year alignment periodicities of the tidally dominant planets Venus Earth and Jupiter. The main emergent dynamo modes are dipole fields oscillating with a 22.14 period - the Hale cycle.

 


Fig. 2 Greenland Ice core derived temperatures and CO2 from Humlum 2016 (20)

Fig.2 shows that Earth has passed the warm peak of the current Milankovitch interglacial and has been generally cooling for the last 3,300 years. The millennial cycle peaks are apparent at about 10,000, 9,000, 8,000, 7,000, 2,000, and 1,000 years before now.  
Climate, and in particular precipitation, is dominated during the Holocene mainly by the Obliquity modulated by the Precession. J. H. C. Bosmans et al 2015 (21)"Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate"   shows that obliquity induced changes in the summer cross-equatorial insolation gradient explain obliquity signals in low latitude paleo climate records more usefully than the classical 65 degree north insolation curve alone. Yi Liu et al 2015 (22) in "Obliquity pacing of the western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone over the last 282,000 years "   " ... shows that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. The obliquity forcing could be primarily delivered by a cross-hemispherical thermal/pressure contrast, resulting from the asymmetric continental configuration between Asia and Australia in a coupled East Asian–Australian circulation system. "

The periodicities pertinent to current estimates of future global temperature change fall into two main categories:

a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles and 

b)  Solar activity cycles with possibly multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales.

  


 Fig.3 Northern Hemisphere 2000 year temperature reconstruction and a Millennial Temperature Turning Point. (MTTP). (23,24)

Because of the data quality, record length and methods used, the NH Christiansen et al 2012 series was selected as the "type reconstruction" to represent the NH trends. (22) The de Vries, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf minima are noted. Important volcanic cooling events are marked with a V. (23) An MTTP  occurs at about 990. The cycles are asymmetric with a 700+/- year down-leg and a 300 +/- year up-leg.

 Solar Activity and Temperature Correlations

 

Fig 4 The NRLTSI2 Solar Activity - CET Relationship 1600- Present (25,26,27)

In Figure 4 the Roth & Joos Cosmogenic Index (CI) is used as the emergent proxy for the solar activity driver of the resulting emergent global and NH temperature data.

The CI designation here integrates changes in solar magnetic field strength, TSI, EUV, IMF, Solar wind density and velocity, CMEs, proton events, the BZ sign and changes in the GCR neutron count which modulates cloud cover and thus albedo. 

 The effect on observed emergent behaviors i.e. global temperature trends, of the combined effect of these solar and GCR drivers will vary non-linearly depending on the particular phases of the eccentricity, obliquity and precession orbital cycles at any particular time.

Figure 4 shows an increase in CI of about 2 W/m 2 from the Maunder minimum to the 1991 activity peak. This increase, together with the other solar "activity" variations modulate the earth’s temperature and albedo via the GR flux and varying cloud cover.

The emergent temperature time series trends of the combined orbital, solar and GCR drivers also reflect turning points, changes of state and important threshold effects created by the interactions of the underlying physical processes. These exogenous forcings are also simultaneously modulated by changes in the earth’s magnetic field and length of day.

The temperature increase since the1680s is due to the up- leg in the natural solar " activity" Millennial cycle as shown by Lean 2018 "Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 AD" (ibid). Figure 4 also shows the correlation between the CI driver and the Central England Seasonal Temperatures. (27). The 1650 – 1700 (Maunder), 1810 - 20 (de Vries/Dalton), and the 1890-1900 (Gleissberg) minima are obvious. The Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point (MSATP) at 1991 correlates with the Millennial Temperature Turning Point (MTTP) at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. 
The CET in Figure 4 shows that this up-leg in the CET has an annual absolute temperature Millennial cycle amplitude of at least 16.5 +/- degrees C. Using the Millennial cycle lengths of Figure 3 at least that same amount of future cooling from the 2004 high is probable by the winters of 2,680-2700 +/-. These temperature changes correlate very well with the changes in energy flow from the sun shown in Figure 4 without any measurable effect of C02 levels.

Fig 5 Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron cycles and trends with the Hadsst3 temperature trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)

The Oulu CR data shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/-.There is a new solar activity minimum at 2009. As in Fig.4 the MSATP at 1991 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay. Short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El Ninos.

 Temperature Predictions

 Loeb et al 2018 in  "Changes in Earths Energy budget during and after the "Pause" in Global Warming"(30) provided an important observational database from 1998 - 2018.This

showed that a reduction in global mean reflected short wave top of atmosphere flux in the three years following the hiatus resulted from decreased low cloud cover which added to the 2016 El Nino temperature spike.

Figure 5 also predicts SST3gl and Specific Humidity trends from 2022 – 2037. (Blue and Purple dashed lines) The secular change in the Solar Activity to a lower base level after 2007 projects to 2021. The SST3gl general decline trend from 2021 to 2037 is here projected as the reverse of the increase from  1983 – 2004 with the cycle 24 peak projected  at 2028 and the cycle 25 peak at 2037.

Kitiashvili,I 2020 (31)  estimated that Solar Cycle 25 will start after the 2020 solar minimum  and will be weaker than Cycle 24.The maximum of Cycle 25 solar activity should be in 2024/25 with a sunspot number of about 50 +/- 15. The correlative HadSST3gl anomaly is 0.05C. in 2037.The intervening solar activity minimum would be at 2031.

Other climate measures show longer delays from the 1991 Solar Activity Turning Point. The arctic sea ice area and volume minima turning point delay is 21 yrs at 2012 which is about one Hale cycle. (32) A possible Millennial sea level peak and turning point might was reached in September 2019+/-. There has been no net sea level rise from then up to March 2021(33) This delay, 28/30 years, is close to one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle. Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (Ibid)

As shown in references 1-10 above, the anthropogenic CO2 Radiative Forcing concept on which the climate models’ dangerous warming forecasts are based is inappropriate for analyzing atmospheric temperature changes. Solar sourced energy flows in and out of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone provide the net negative feedback which has kept the earth within a narrow temperature range for the last 600 million years. The effects on temperature and climate of major meteorite strikes, periods of flood basalt outpourings and major volcanic eruptions are superposed on this solar sourced background. The sample lengths in the IPCC reported model studies are too short. The models retrofit from the present back for only 100 – 150 years when the currently most important climate controlling, largest amplitude, "solar activity" cycle is millennial. The relevant system for comparison should include the entire Holocene.

Most importantly the models make the fundamental error of ignoring the very probable long- term decline in solar activity and temperature following the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 5. The correlative UAH 6.0 satellite TLT anomaly at the MTTP at 2003/12 was + 0.26C. The temperature anomaly at 2021/9 was + 0.25 C. (34) This satellite data set shows that there has been no net global warming for the last 17 years.  As shown above, these Renewable Energy Targets in turn are based on model forecast outcomes which now appear highly improbable. Science, Vol 373,issue 6554 July2021 in”Climate panel confronts implausibly hot models” (35) says “Many of the world's leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the modelmakers themselves, believe are implausibly fast. In advance of the U.N. report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models...... into useful guidance for policymakers. “It's become clear over the last year or so that we can't avoid this,” says Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.”

The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2704 are likely to be broadly similar to those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 2. From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves droughts and floods  and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and  late spring frosts.

 Population and Sustainability

  Zaichun Zhul et al 2016 (36) in Greening of the Earth and its drivers report “a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated Leaf Area Index (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area from 1982 - 2009. ………. CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend.” Policies which limit CO2 emissions or even worse sequester CO2 in a quixotic attempt to mitigate these natural cycles would decrease agricultural food production and are antithetical to the goals of feeding the increasing population and bringing people out of poverty

Additionally, the tropical rain forests and tropical oceans are the main source of the atmosphere's water vapor and the rainfall essential to life and agriculture on land. Potable and agricultural water supplies are now competing and stretched to their limits in many areas because of the global population increase.

 Spillias et al 2021 state " the energy systems built to power the future will play a critical role in determining the extent to which we are able to achieve most, if not all, the prescribed development goals. (37)  

The UNFCCC, IPCC' and National Governments’ reliance on Renewable Energy Targets to control CO2 and mitigate climate change by transitioning away from fossil fuels is at odds with Diaz,S. et al The Science policy forum  " Set ambitious goals for biodiversity and sustainability (38) which says that Global biodiversity policy is at a crossroads. 

"First, multiple goals are required because of nature's complexity, with different facets—genes, populations, species, deep evolutionary history, ecosystems, and their contributions to people—having markedly different geographic distributions and responses to human drivers…………. As a result, there is no single goal based on any one facet that would, if realized, guarantee by itself that the necessary outcome for the other facets would be achieved”. These differences mean that global temperature limits and targets as set in the Paris accords to ameliorate future temperatures are in practice useless when formulating policies relative to adaptation to the actual real world problems. These require more local inputs for particular coastlines, different major river basins and mountain range limited ecosystems.

 Modern industrial civilization, especially in large Megacities, cannot function for long without continuous adequate power supply, and functional global food and basic resource supply chains.The 2021 Texas freeze killed about 200 people. Long lines for food and water provided a red-flag warning of the present dangers of a cooling world. Not coincidentally, the Earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Cross border migration is out of control across the Rio Grande into the USA, and from West Africa via Libya to Europe and across the English channel. Loss of wildlife habitat to human habitation, cattle-ranching and ocean overfishing have accelerated species extinctions worldwide. Agricultural monocultures based on chemical fertilizer and insecticides have already decimated bird populations in the northern hemisphere.  Rosenberg et al 2019 in "Decline of the North American Avifauna" (39) says: "Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance ...Steep declines in North American bird populations parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally.”

The UNEP, IPCC and UNFCCC “consensus” scientific community’s unwarranted focus on future CO2 levels, and global warming mitigation via “net zero” energy policies has been adopted by most Governments, Mainstream Media, NGOs and leading politicians as the basis for climate and energy policy. At COP 26 Individual Governments will decide where and how, given their different political systems and demographics, they will draw the line between accommodation for other species and natural ecosystems and poverty reduction, economic development and consumer consumption levels.

Humanity contends with all other species including COVID 19 and its variants in a Darwinian struggle for lebensraum. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science “consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to civilization has no empirical basis. The cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy. We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.

 Acknowledgements

 I would like to thank my wife Hilary for the adaptation of figures 3 – 5 for publication.

References

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3 comments:

  1. This paper says:"Earth has just passed the peak of a Millennial cycle and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. At the same time, not coincidentally, the earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals.
    Comments with evidence pro or con these statements will be particularly welcome.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I really liked the article. I find that the AGW conjecture to many seems plausible at first but upon closer examination it is full of very serious flaws. According to the AGW conjecture adding H2O, the primary greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere must cause warming. If that were the case then the wet lapse rate would have to be greater than the dry lapse rate in the troposphere but the opposite is true. Since the wet lapse rate is significantly less that the dry lapse rate, adding H2O to the atmosphere must cause cooling instead of warming. Hence most of the AGW conjecture must be invalid. If CO2 caused warming then the addition of CO2 over the past 30 years should have caused at least a measurable increase in the dry lapse rate in the troposphere but that has not happened. As we know the lapse rate is the acceleration of gravity divided by the heat capacity of the atmosphere at constant pressure and has nothing to do with the LWIR absorption properties of any component gasses. If anything adding CO2 to the atmosphere lowers the dry lapse rate slightly and hence promotes cooling. If seems to me the only way that CO2 could cause warming would be to raise the ERL, defined as the Effective Radiating Level. However I would think that adding more LWIR radiators, like CO2 to the atmosphere would if anything lower the ERL at least slightly rather then raise it. I would also assume that the ERL is dominated by H2O so much so that whatever CO2 does is insignificant. Does anyone out there knows how CO2 might act to change the ERL? I would like to have more information on that subject.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Wiliiam You will find all you need here
    https://arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098.pdf
    Figs 4 and 5 show that the effects of anthropogenic CO2 and Methane are immeasurably small. From the conclusions :
    "The most striking fact about radiation transfer in Earth’s atmosphere is summarized by
    Figs. 4 and 5. Doubling the current concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, N2O and
    CH4 increases the forcings by a few percent for cloud-free parts of the atmosphere. Table 3
    shows the forcings at both the top of the atmosphere and at the tropopause are comparableto those found by other groups.
    Radiative forcing depends strongly on latitude, as shown in Figs. 7 and 8. Near the wintertime poles, with very little water vapor in the atmosphere, CO2 dominates the radiative forcing. The radiation to space from H2O, CO2 and O3 in the relatively warm upper
    atmosphere can exceed the radiation from the cold surface of the ice sheet and the TOA
    forcing can be negative.
    Fig. 9 as well as Tables 2 and 4 show that at current concentrations, the forcings from all
    greenhouse gases are saturated. The saturations of the abundant greenhouse gases H2O and
    CO2 are so extreme that the per-molecule forcing is attenuated by four orders of magnitude with respect to the optically thin values. Saturation also suppresses the forcing power per molecule for the less abundant greenhouse gases, O3, N2O and CH4, from their optically thin values, but far less than for H2O and CO2."
    Thanks for a useful comment Norman

    ReplyDelete