Norman J. Page
Energy & Environment
(C )The Author(s) 2017
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth's climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities. Evidence is presented specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and, more importantly, 1,000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record. Data related to the solar climate driver is discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak and correlated with the millennial peak -inversion point - in the RSS temperature trend in about 2003. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling are made. If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.
Fig.3 Reconstruction of the extra-tropical NH mean temperature Christiansen and Ljungqvist 2012. (9) (The red line is the 50 year moving average.)
Any discussion or forecast of future cooling must be based on a wide knowledge of the most important reconstructions of past temperatures, after all, the hockey stick was instrumental in selling the CAGW meme to the grant awarders, politicians, NGOs and the general public.
Fig. 5 Hadcrut 4gl trends showing the millennial cycle temperature peak at about 2005.6
Fig.6 A comparison of the periodograms of (a) the Holocene sunspot activity with (b) time converted periodograms of the Miocene proxy data (19).
Kern 2012 (19) presents strong evidence for the influence of solar cycles during the Holocene and in a Late Miocene lake system. It is noteworthy that the Millennial periodicity is persistent and identifiable throughout the Holocene Figs. 2 and 6 and in the Miocene - 10.5 million years ago Fig.6. The prominent Millennial unnamed peak in Fig. 6a above is also seen in Scaffetta’s Fig. 10 in the C-14 data (20) and is correlated with the Eddy cycle with a suggested period of 900 to 1050 years.
Fig 7 Effect of revising the PAGES Arctic 2k database on the Arctic annual temperature reconstruction published recently by the PAGES 2k Consortium1(22)
The author would like to acknowledge all those in the climate science community who have contributed to the massive accumulation of the basic instrumental and proxy climate data that has taken place in the last thirty years, without which empirical climate science would have no foundation. I also appreciate the very apposite comments and suggestions made by one of the anonymous reviewers and the assistance of my wife Hilary in the adaptation of a number of the figures for the Journal publication.
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Thank you for a great article. I enjoyed the conclusions that were presented. Of course, the author used scientific data and analysis from sources that I recognized as being credible. I arrived at the basic same conclusions based on many sources. My interest in Climate change began after the "Hockey Stick" coverup first appeared. It became more of an interest when further discrepancies surfaced. Knowledgeable scientists helped me cement my opinions that AGW was false and when political pressures began to spread their form of propaganda. The scientists who influenced my thinking included He3nik Svensmark, Dyson Freeman, Don Easterbrook and many other sources including publications such as Debunk, WUWT, CFACT etc.ReplyDelete
Thanks for your kind words. Anything you can do to spread the word by providing links to this website or the paper on social media or climate web sites would be appreciated.ReplyDelete
I have previously noted the IPCC statement you cite:ReplyDelete
Note 16: “No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.”
I think you have a very clear take on the position United Nations take on that basis:
“Paradoxically the claim is still made that the UNFCCC Agenda 21 actions can dial up a desired temperature by controlling CO2 levels. This is cognitive dissonance so extreme as to be irrational.”
I wish policy makers would read that Note 16 and understand what it means – as you did.
I have tried to calculate and compare the predictions by IPCC with observations of ocean warming after 2005. I run into problems finding the central estimate by IPCC, by the reasons you have also identified. I found that the likely range of climate sensitivity will allow more or less any amount of ocean warming. It is really hard to falsify a theory that allows any amount of warming. It will take cooling to falsify the theory expressed by the figures IPCC provides. This is documented in my post:
IPCC got all bets covered
This is what I found:
“IPCC states that the climate feedback parameter is “likely” between 2,47 and 0,82 (W/m2*K). This corresponds to an equilibrium climate sensitivity of 1.5°C and 4.5°C respectively. IPCC also states that: “no best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies”.
To deduce the range of ocean warming allowed by the theory put forward by IPCC I use the following figures:
IPCC estimate for anthropological radiative forcing:
2,3 W/m2 for 2011
And, the highest and lowest climate feedback parameters provided by IPCC:
2,5 W/m2*K and 0,82 W/m2*K
Based on these figures the theory put forward by IPCC would allow warming of the oceans anywhere in the range from 0,0043 K to 0,087 K.
As there are also other uncertainties, I will allow myself to round off the figures. The theory put forward by IPCC in the fifth assessment report would allow warming of the oceans from 0 to 2000 m between 2005 and 2015 anywhere in the range from 0 K to 0,1 K.
How can they possibly miss? “
"Forward projections made by mathematical curve fitting have no necessary connection to reality"ReplyDelete
That is an important realization. By Fourier analysis any kind of time series can be fitted, and expanded into the future by Fourier synthesis. However, Fourier analysis can not tell us if the periods, amplitudes, and waveforms that are used to fit the time series actually exists. Most likely they don´t. Fourier analysis does not identify any of the physical relationships that affects the measurand.
If curve fitting really could get to the underlying causal structures of a time series, I guess we would all be rich from the stock market: http://chebscan.com/fourierPredict/
The stock market is clearly a random process as confirmed by historical data. Hence, curve fitting is useless as you contend. However, historical records of global temperature, correlated with solar system orbital dynamics have consistently trended. Hence, curve fitting becomes a meaningful process. Not perfect but meaningful.Delete
"If the real climate outcomes follow trends which even approach the near-term forecasts in paragraph 3.3 above, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper in Fig. 11 (green line) will be so large by 2021 as to make the current confidence level in the establishment IPCC forecasts untenable."ReplyDelete
That is a quite clear and near prediction, I might even be around to see it.
Excellent paper and quite close to the truth of climate change drivers.ReplyDelete
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rent a chiller, I have read all the comments and suggestions posted by the visitors for this article are very fine,We will wait for your next article so only.Thanks!ReplyDelete