Friday, May 31, 2013

Comment on WUWT re Sass Baker Institute Article In Chronicle

Here is a copy of an E-mail I sent to Dr Sass yesterday – so far no reply.

From Dr Norman Page



I saw your piece in the Chronicle this morning.I find myself genuinely puzzled when scientists with your outstanding qualifications continue to support the CAGW meme.

There has been no net warming since 1997 with CO2 up over 8%. The SSTs show a cooling trend since 2003.

The problem with the IPCC- MetOffice Climate models is that, apart from the egregious structural errors in the specific models, (assuming that CO2 is the main driver when it clearly follows temperature and adding water vapour as a feedback onto CO2 to increase the sensitivity) climate science is so complex that the modelling approach is inherently incapable of providing useful forecasts for several reasons -for starters the difficulty of specifying the initial conditions with sufficient precision. All the IPCC model projections and the impact studies and government policies which depend on them are a total waste of time and money. The only useful approach is to perform power spectrum and wavelet analysis on the temperature and possible climate driver time series to find patterns of repeating periodicities and project them forward. When this is done it is apparent that the earth entered a cooling phase in 2003-4 which will likely last for 20 more years and perhaps for several hundred years beyond that. For the data and references supporting this conclusion check the posts “Open letter to Benny Peiser ” and “Climate Forecasting Basics for Britains Seven Alarmist Scientists”

at ”

There are a large number of other posts on the same site relative to Climate Forecasting and the impending Global Cooling – I hope you can find the time to check some of them eg “30 year climate Forecast – 2 year update” which looks pretty good.

Here’s my latest forecast summary

“It is not a great stretch of the imagination to propose that the 20th century warming peaked in about 2003 and that that peak was a peak in both the 60 year and 1000 year cycles.On that basis the conclusions of the post referred to above were as follows.

1 Significant temperature drop at about 2016-17

2 Possible unusual cold snap 2021-22

3 Built in cooling trend until at least 2024

4 Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2035 – 0.15

5Temperature Hadsst3 moving average anomaly 2100 – 0.5

6 General Conclusion – by 2100 all the 20th century temperature rise will have been reversed,

7 By 2650 earth could possibly be back to the depths of the little ice age.

8 The effect of increasing CO2 emissions will be minor but beneficial – they may slightly ameliorate the forecast

cooling and help maintain crop yields .

9 Warning !! There are some signs in the Livingston and Penn Solar data that a sudden drop to the Maunder

Minimum Little Ice Age temperatures could be imminent – with a much more rapid and economically disruptive

cooling than that forecast above which may turn out to be a best case scenario

For a dicussion of the effects of cooling on future weather patterns see the 30 year Climate Forecast 2 Year update at

I’m sure you will disagree with the above forecasts. I would be really interested to know what specific data or methods you disagree with.

Best Regards Norman Page.

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