Thursday, January 5, 2012

Comment on Dot Earth 1/4/12

Andy - At various times over the last year you have appeared to consider climate science more objectively - yet here you go again with the notion of a "fundamental Republican science problem " . The Hadley Sea Surface Temperature data is the best metric for climate change . The 5 year moving SST temperature average shows that the warming trend peaked in 2003 and a simple regression analysis shows a nine year global SST cooling trend since then ..The data shows warming from 1900 – 1940 ,cooling from 1940 to about 1975 and warming from 1975 – 2003. CO2 levels rose monotonically during this entire period.There has been no net warming since 1997 – 14 years with CO2 up 7.9% and no net warming. Anthropogenic CO2 has some effect but our knowledge of the natural drivers is still so poor that we cannot accurately estimate what the anthropogenic CO2 contribution is. Since 2003 CO2 has risen further and yet the global temperature trend is negative. This is obviously a short term on which to base predictions but all statistical analyses of particular time series must be interpreted in conjunction with other ongoing events and in the context of declining solar magnetic field strength and activity – to the extent of a possible Dalton or Maunder minimum and the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal a global 20 – 30 year cooling spell is more likely than a warming trend. Please see IPCC models are junk science.


  1. Doctor Page gives Mark Morano too little credit.

    He has done more to make hogwash the common currency of the climate wars than the good doctor himself, which given the staggering counter-factuality of what we see above is no small achievement.

    I expect the performance will be repeated, as Houston folks have much to gain by subscribing to this sort of mythology.

  2. Russell You simply assert ( wrongly)that what I said was counterfactual. Anyone reading this can check the annual SST data at
    You will find that I have reported it correctly. Similarly the CO2 data and the solar data is easily available on the web.
    I agree that my statement re the IPCC models is opinion but this too can be easily substantiated by reference to the IPCCs own comments made on earlier posts on this blog.
    Regards Norman.