Thursday, January 25, 2018

Global SST data confirms cooling is on the way.

THE COMING COOLING.
The latest hadsst3 data shows global sst temperatures are now below the pre El Nino trend.
 


 I see that reality is beginning to intrude upon the dangerous global warming team. They say ” it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus’.”
Climate is controlled by natural cycles. Earth is just past the 2003+/- peak of a millennial cycle and the current cooling trend will likely continue until the next Little Ice Age minimum at about 2650.See the Energy and Environment paper at http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0958305X16686488
and an earlier accessible blog version at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-coming-cooling-usefully-accurate_17.html
Here is the abstract for convenience :
“ABSTRACT
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities. Evidence is presented specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and, more importantly, 1,000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record. Data related to the solar climate driver is discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak and correlated with the millennial peak -inversion point – in the RSS temperature trend in about 2003. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling are made. If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.””
For the current situation and longer range forecasts see Figs 4 and 12 in the links above.



 Fig 4. RSS trends showing the millennial cycle temperature peak at about 2003 (14)
Figure 4 illustrates the working hypothesis that for this RSS time series the peak of the Millennial cycle, a very important “golden spike”, can be designated at 2003
The RSS cooling trend in Fig. 4 and the Hadcrut4gl cooling in Fig. 5 were truncated at 2015.3 and 2014.2, respectively, because it makes no sense to start or end the analysis of a time series in the middle of major ENSO events which create ephemeral deviations from the longer term trends. By the end of August 2016, the strong El Nino temperature anomaly had declined rapidly. The cooling trend is likely to be fully restored by the end of 2019.


Fig. 12. Comparative Temperature Forecasts to 2100.
Fig. 12 compares the IPCC forecast with the Akasofu (31) forecast (red harmonic) and with the simple and most reasonable working hypothesis of this paper (green line) that the “Golden Spike” temperature peak at about 2003 is the most recent peak in the millennial cycle. Akasofu forecasts a further temperature increase to 2100 to be 0.5°C ± 0.2C, rather than 4.0 C +/- 2.0C predicted by the IPCC. but this interpretation ignores the Millennial inflexion point at 2004. Fig. 12 shows that the well documented 60-year temperature cycle coincidentally also peaks at about 2003.Looking at the shorter 60+/- year wavelength modulation of the millennial trend, the most straightforward hypothesis is that the cooling trends from 2003 forward will simply be a mirror image of the recent rising trends. This is illustrated by the green curve in Fig. 12, which shows cooling until 2038, slight warming to 2073 and then cooling to the end of the century, by which time almost all of the 20th century warming will have been reversed
 

4 comments:

  1. Alarmists finally admitting a hiatus? LOL. I thought the IPCC had admitted that long ago.

    ReplyDelete
  2. TRAS ESTA EVIDENCIA:Los borradores del IPCC AR4 mostraron un diagrama de panel de proxies del Hemisferio Sur, pero omitieron notablemente la serie de Law Dome. Como revisor de AR4, se solicitó que se incluyera en el diagrama (sabiendo por supuesto que mostraba un resultado que era opuesto a lo que estaban reclamando). Los autores principales del AR4 del IPCC también lo sabían y se negaron a mostrarlo en su diagrama , inventando una excusa ridícula. Hubo una discusión reveladora en los correos electrónicos de Climategate.

    ReplyDelete
  3. What we see here on Earth is just a reflection of what's happening external to us. For the answers of climate change and weather, look to the heavens.

    ReplyDelete
  4. One detail about the cyclical nature of the earth's climate that is difficult to find much writing on regards planetary positioning, its impact on sunspot activity which is by some accounts the number one contributor to changes in the earth's climate. I am not a PhD in this area, but my understanding is that in association with the law of universal gravitation, the 'magnetic' pull by (for example) Jupiter and Saturn along with the varying combination of the 'magnetic' influence of the other planets causes a 'draw' on the sun, which either increases or decreases sunspot activity. That in turn causes the fluctuations in solar energy ("Heat Waves" with higher sunspot activity, and the reverse). This cyclically increases or decreases the heat energy applied to the earth. And of course, as data shows, CO2 levels in the atmosphere follow (not lead) seawater temperatures. The warmer seawater temperature results in seawater's reduced ability to retain CO2. So the warmer seawater temperatures cause increase in CO2 levels (not the reverse - as some unknowledgeable like to proclaim).

    Another detail is how this same 'magnetic' draw from planetary position impacts tektonic plate stability (i.e.: increase or decrease in earthquake/volcanic activity). This impacts El Nino as this volcanic activity along the west coast of South America associates with those seawater temperatures (which in turn cause the climactic cycles associated with El Nino.

    I am not an expert on this and don't wish for a debate. These are some good details for the curious to research.

    ReplyDelete