Norman J. Page
Energy & Environment
(C )The Author(s) 2017
This paper argues that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted. Earth's climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths. It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in time in relation to the current phases of those different interacting natural quasi periodicities. Evidence is presented specifying the timing and amplitude of the natural 60+/- year and, more importantly, 1,000 year periodicities (observed emergent behaviors) that are so obvious in the temperature record. Data related to the solar climate driver is discussed and the solar cycle 22 low in the neutron count (high solar activity) in 1991 is identified as a solar activity millennial peak and correlated with the millennial peak -inversion point - in the UAH temperature trend in about 2003. The cyclic trends are projected forward and predict a probable general temperature decline in the coming decades and centuries. Estimates of the timing and amplitude of the coming cooling are made. If the real climate outcomes follow a trend which approaches the near term forecasts of this working hypothesis, the divergence between the IPCC forecasts and those projected by this paper will be so large by 2021 as to make the current, supposedly actionable, level of confidence in the IPCC forecasts untenable.
Fig.3 Reconstruction of the extra-tropical NH mean temperature Christiansen and Ljungqvist 2012. (9) (The red line is the 50 year moving average.)
Any discussion or forecast of future cooling must be based on a wide knowledge of the most important reconstructions of past temperatures, after all, the hockey stick was instrumental in selling the CAGW meme to the grant awarders, politicians, NGOs and the general public.
Fig. 5 Hadcrut 4gl trends showing the millennial cycle temperature peak at about 2005.6
Fig.6 A comparison of the periodograms of (a) the Holocene sunspot activity with (b) time converted periodograms of the Miocene proxy data (19).
Kern 2012 (19) presents strong evidence for the influence of solar cycles during the Holocene and in a Late Miocene lake system. It is noteworthy that the Millennial periodicity is persistent and identifiable throughout the Holocene Figs. 2 and 6 and in the Miocene - 10.5 million years ago Fig.6. The prominent Millennial unnamed peak in Fig. 6a above is also seen in Scaffetta’s Fig. 10 in the C-14 data (20) and is correlated with the Eddy cycle with a suggested period of 900 to 1050 years.
Fig 7 Effect of revising the PAGES Arctic 2k database on the Arctic annual temperature reconstruction published recently by the PAGES 2k Consortium1(22)
The author would like to acknowledge all those in the climate science community who have contributed to the massive accumulation of the basic instrumental and proxy climate data that has taken place in the last thirty years, without which empirical climate science would have no foundation. I also appreciate the very apposite comments and suggestions made by one of the anonymous reviewers and the assistance of my wife Hilary in the adaptation of a number of the figures for the Journal publication.
1. Essex. Believing six impossible things before breakfast, climate models, www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvhipLNeda4 (2013, accessed 16 December 2016). 2
IPCC. Summary for policymakers. p. 12 [Figure 5]. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, et al (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change]. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
Collins WD, Ramaswamy V, Schwarzkopf MD, . Radiative forcing by well-mixed greenhouse gases: estimates from climate models in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). J Geophys Res 2006; 111: D14317. Google Scholar CrossRef
Solomon S, Qin D, Manning Z, et al (eds). Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2007, para 8.6.4.
IPCC. Summary for policy makers [note 16, p.16]. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner G-K, et al. (eds) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2013.
6. O’Neil C. Weapons of math destruction. 1st ed. New York: Crown Publishers, 2016, p. 3, 12. 7.
Harrison S and Stainforth D. Predicting climate change, p. 111, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009EO130004/pdf (2009, accessed 16 December 2016).
Humlum O. An overview to get things into perspective, Figure 3, www.climate4you.com/ (2016, accessed 16 December 2016).
Christiansen B and Ljungqvist FC. Clim Past 2012; 8: 765–786, www.clim-past.net/8/765/2012/ (accessed 16 December 2016).
Mann ME, Bradley RS, Hughes MK. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties, and limitations [Figure 3, p. 361]. Geophys Res Lett 1999; 26: 759–762, www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MBH1999.pdf.
Esper J, Cook ER, Schweingruber FH. [Figure 3] Low-frequency signals in long tree-ring chronologies for reconstructing past temperature variability. Science 2002; 295: 2252–2253, www.sciencemag.org.
Mann ME, Zhang Z, Hughes MK, . Proxy-based reconstructions of hemispheric and global surface temperature variations over the past two millennia. [Figure 3]. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 2008; 105: 13252–13257. Google Scholar CrossRef, Medline
Mann ME, Zhang S, Rutherford S, et al. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly [Figure 1, p. 1257]. Science 2009; 326: www.meteo.psu.edu/holocene/public_html/shared/articles/MannetalScience09.pdf.
RSS data. using Wood for Trees, ).
Hadcrut4gl.1980 – Present, using Wood for Trees, www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcrut4/data/current/time_series/HadCRUT.126.96.36.199.monthly_ns_avg.txt (accessed 16 December 2016).
Steinhilber F, Abreu JA, Beer J, et al. 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity [Figure 4], https://epic.awi.de/30297/1/PNAS-2012-Steinhilber-1118965109.pdf at www.pnas.org/lookup/suppl/doi:10.1073/pnas.1118965109/-/DCSupplemental (2012 accessed 16 December 2016).
Rampino M, Sanders JE, Newman WS, et al. Long range forecasts of solar cycles and climate change [chapter 25]. In: Landscheit T (ed.) and The suns orbit 750–2050 [Chapter 26]. In: Fairbridge R (ed.). New York: Climate. Von Nostrand Rheinhold Co., 1987, pp. 421–541.
Scafetta N. Discussion on climate oscillations: CMIP5 general circulation models versus a semi-empirical harmonic model based on astronomical cycles. Earth Sci Rev 2013; 126: 321–357. Google Scholar CrossRef
Kern AK, Harzhauser M, Piller WE, et al. Strong evidence for the influence of solar cycles on a Late Miocene lake system revealed by biotic and abiotic proxies, 2012, pp. 124–136, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.palaeo.2012.02.023.
Scaffetta N, Milani F, Bianchini A, . On the astronomical origin of the Hallstatt oscillation found in radiocarbon and climate records throughout the Holocene. Earth Sci Rev 2016; 162: 24–43. Google Scholar CrossRef
21. Shindell DT, Schmidt GA, Mann ME, . Solar forcing of regional climate change during the maunder minimum. Science 2001; 294: 2149–2152. Google Scholar CrossRef, Medline 22.
McKay NP and Kaufman DS. An extended Arctic proxy temperature database for the past 2,000 years, www.nature.com/articles/sdata201426, http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2014.26 (2014, accessed 16 December 2016).
Had SST 3 data, http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/temperature/HadSST3.pdf (accessed 16 December 2016).
Gervais F. Anthropogenic CO2 warming challenged by 60-year cycle. Earth Sci Rev 2016; 155: 129–135. Google Scholar CrossRef
Berggren AM, Beer J, Possnert G, et al. A 600-year annual 10Be record from the NGRIP ice core Greenland, onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2009GL038004/full (2009, accessed 16 December 2016).
Steinhilber F, Abreu JA, Beer J, et al. 9,400 years of cosmic radiation and solar activity from ice cores and tree rings, www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1118965109 (2012, accessed 16 December 2016).
27. Oulu Neutron Monitor data, http://cosmicrays.oulu.fi/#database (accessed 16 December 2016). 28.
Usoskin I, Schussler M, Solanki SK, et al. Solar activity over the last 1150 years, https://www.researchgate.net/publication/41624745_Solar_activity_over_the_last_1150_years (2005, accessed 16 December 2016).
Humlum O. Climate4you graph. Tropical cloud cover and global air temperature, www.climate4you.com/ (2011, accessed 16 December 2016).
30. Polar Science Center: Arctic sea ice volume and trend from PIOMAS, http://psc.apl.washington.edu/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/schweiger/ice_volume/BPIOMASIceVolumeAnomalyCurrentV2.1.png (accessed 16 December 2016). 31.
Akasofu S. On the recovery from the little ice age. Nat Sci 2010; 2: 1211–1224. http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ns.210.11149. Google Scholar
Easterbrook. Evidence for predicting global cooling for the next three decades, www.globalresearch.ca/global-cooling-is-here/10783 (2015, accessed 16 December 2016).
33. The four idols of Francis Bacon, www.sirbacon.org/links/4idols.html (accessed 16 December 2016