The following exchange took place in April and May 2008. At that time Pachauri seemed quite objective and rational.
I never heard any more back from him re his research into the points I raised. I assume he found no actions were warranted.
Dr Pachauri
It is a month since my first e-mail and I thought I might draw your attention to a few more articles of interest.It is clear that temperatures correlate much better with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( Controlled by solar activity) than with CO2 levels. Google - PDO cooling -and look at Easterbrooks graphs and comments.. Also google - Jason satellite cooling - for a discussion of the current situation.
Google -- ball UN structures - for an anlysis of how the IPCC came to distort the science for political ends. You are obviously in a better position to judge Ball's position than I am ,but what he says looks very plausible to me.
In the meantime Solar Cycle 24 continues to fail to appear making the cooling predictions more and more likely.
I do hope you will soon feel that you can speak out publicly on these matters in the near future to perhaps forestall damaging actioThank you for your careful consideration of my original e - mail.A useful discussion of the IPCC forcing and feedback factors can be found by googling - pielke monckton guest -
Best Regards Norman Page
----- Original Message -----
From: R K Pachauri
To: Norman Page
Sent: Thursday, May 08, 2008 7:01 AM
Subject: Re: IPCC - Global Warming
Dear Dr. Page, I have gone through your email of 21/04/2008 in considerable detail and I have also done some background research on the issues that you have raised. At this stage I would like to acknowledge your message, and will see what actions are warranted as a follow up. With kind regards, Yours sincerely, R K Pachauri ***************************************************************R K Pachauri, Ph.DDirector-General, TERIHabitat Place, Lodhi RoadNew Delhi 110 003Tel: +91 11 24682121 or 2122Fax: +91 11 24682144 or 2145www.teriin.org***************************************************************
"Norman Page"
21/04/2008 02:45 AM
To
cc
Subject
IPCC - Global Warming
Dear Dr. Pachauri We are seeing the damage done to world food production and food prices by the ill considered rush by Western governments to use biofuels. These same governments,basing their policies on the IPCC climate projections, are rushing towards a similarly ill conceived policy of cappng carbon emissions. I implore you to consider the following points as a matter of urgency. 1. Sea surface temperatures have been dropping since 2003 contrary to IPCC projections. 2. Data from Britain's Hadley centre Climate Research Unit show that for the first quarter of 2008 SSTs were cooler on average than for any yearly average post 1996. 3 Since 1996 CO2 levels have risen 6%. - there is therefore little connection between anthropogenic CO2 and temperature. 4. In any event Spencer (2008) ( google -Spencer Heartland conference - then scroll down to his presentation on the last day) has shown conclusively that the IPCC temperature - CO2 sensitivities are grossly overstated because they used positive instead of negative feedback factors for some of their parameters. 5.All the above shows that there is little threat from warming over the next century. However the situation is worse than just over-estimating CO2 forcing. 6. Solar studies suggest the real possibility of a Dalton type minumum in solar activity developing until about 2040. ( See Charvatova 2000 Ann. Geophysicae). If this in fact occurs, global food production will be reduced because of short growing seasons and early and late frosts. 7. Furthermore if SSTs continue to fall the oceans will cool and absorb more CO2 and CO2 levels will fall. 8. A useful portion - 15 - 20% ? of the increased crop yields during the 20th century was due simply to the increase in CO2 which is the essential plant food not a pollutant. 9. Therefore, if the cooling scenario develops, in order to mitigate hunger , Governments should be encouraging CO2 emissions not trying to reduce them. I believe as a public service and to preserve your scientific and personal integrity you should publically announce that in the light of the actual global temperature trends you are calling for an immediate re-evaluation of the IPCC climate projections to be completed within 6 months by independent and IPCC scientists and that all carbon cap schemes should be put on hold until the results of that evaluation are announced. Another three - five years of data will probably be enough to stablish whether a long term cooling trend will occur. Meanwhile each month that goes by without Solar Cycle 24 starting up makes such a cooling event more likely. I will be happy to discus this all with you and provide you with the pertinent literature or web references. with Best Regards Dr Norman Page Houston USA phone 713 467 8709 normanpage@comcast.net
Best Regards Dr Norman Page.
