tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post5675408379485593154..comments2024-01-31T04:58:12.328-06:00Comments on Climatesense-norpag: The Epistemology of Climate Forecasting for 8 Year Olds and the Coming Cooling.Dr Norman Pagehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07481441558527911558noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-48425640269880170082015-10-28T14:56:55.525-05:002015-10-28T14:56:55.525-05:00Norman, you are a lucky man. My 8 year old is foot...Norman, you are a lucky man. My 8 year old is football crazy, but not science sadly. Thanks for commenting on my blog by the way. Derek Tipphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07893712146272196994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-25903665930796357482015-10-22T12:39:26.511-05:002015-10-22T12:39:26.511-05:00Derek I have 10 grandchildren ages from 22 years ...Derek I have 10 grandchildren ages from 22 years - 4 months.<br />I think if I walked my now 9 year old through the post with an accompanying verbal explanation of the figures she would get the general message. She is one of the brightest of them.<br />Dr Norman Pagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07481441558527911558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-41199631071596886892015-10-21T04:13:42.467-05:002015-10-21T04:13:42.467-05:00Hi Norman, great blog by the way. Are you a real g...Hi Norman, great blog by the way. Are you a real grandfather? I have an 8 year old grandson and while I would not claim he is attentive, I doubt that any real 8 year old would listen to the whole explanation you give. I think maybe a 15 year old. Maybe an 8 year old genius.Derek Tipphttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07893712146272196994noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-59655208019627025392015-09-14T14:09:23.087-05:002015-09-14T14:09:23.087-05:00Justin . Good question. First we need to see where...Justin . Good question. First we need to see where we are with regard to the 400,000 year periodicity in the eccentricity cycle - see green line below<br />http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-H1o2iz2BDNM/U8cEmWDnJvI/AAAAAAAAASs/KAE3zaitCZY/s1600/MilankovitchCyclesOrbitandCores.png<br />Then look at the red line ( Benthic forams) to get an idea of the amplitude and timing if the corresponding temperatures.<br />As to the amplitude of the next millennial peak (about 3003) we will be in a much better position to estimate that when we have better defined the current peak by about 2120.<br />See answer to Ava's question above<br />"Ava asks - the blue line is almost flat. - When will we know for sure that we are on the down slope of the thousand year cycle and heading towards another Little Ice Age."<br /><br />The current interstadial is similar to Marine Isotope Stage 11 Dr Norman Pagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07481441558527911558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-20033499076942192752015-09-13T18:00:02.868-05:002015-09-13T18:00:02.868-05:00I wonder if you also expect the trend of lower pea...I wonder if you also expect the trend of lower peaks in the millennial cycle to continue? <br /><br />If so how long does that suggest we have left in the Holocene? (ie. before the 100,000yr +/- cycle re-asserts.)Justin Kasehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17432203756688046433noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-8306592636809937522015-08-31T11:09:46.749-05:002015-08-31T11:09:46.749-05:00Good luck with Leif Svalgaard.
To deal with his i...Good luck with Leif Svalgaard.<br /><br />To deal with his inevitable objections perhaps you could add references to past solar activity data that is not dependent on the relativel short sunspot history but which points to the 1000 year solar cycle as per Fig 1?Stephen Wildehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07357171106480483956noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-91649483820243181402015-08-27T17:16:42.604-05:002015-08-27T17:16:42.604-05:00I am wondering how vegetation will react to less s...I am wondering how vegetation will react to less solar radiation, will plants show signs of change before the rest of nature does. I ask because I have had a variegated Ivy plant that sat in a window received a good amount of indirect sunlight. For the past 3 Summers the plant side that faced the window had hints of red in the leaves, otherwise the plant was healthy. In other words in the hottest part of Summer it looked like Fall was approaching. The plant had been in the same spot for 10 yrs, without showing Fall-like leaves. In addition, this year my Nectarine tree blossomed for 4 days, usually it is 2 1/2 to 3 weeks. Simultaneously, I noted that my neighbor's Rhododendron blooming for the same length of time -3 days rather than the normal couple of weeks.BearCubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15520172456880871522noreply@blogger.com