tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post1528885002884737659..comments2024-01-31T04:58:12.328-06:00Comments on Climatesense-norpag: 30 Year Climate Forecast -- 2 Year Update.Dr Norman Pagehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/07481441558527911558noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-76471644109362131812013-01-12T09:14:50.299-06:002013-01-12T09:14:50.299-06:00Doug I enjoyed your web site and obviously genera...Doug I enjoyed your web site and obviously generally agree with your views. As I see it the key to estimating the temperature trends for the next 50 years or so is inknowing where we are relative to the peak in the 1000 year cycle. Is the peak broad or narrow? You might like to look at the shape of the last one for a possible clue. see <br />http://www.clim-past.net/8-765/2012<br /><br />Figs 5,6,7. Best Regards NormanDr Norman Pagehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07481441558527911558noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-89410770157056317372013-01-03T17:15:28.502-06:002013-01-03T17:15:28.502-06:00The world needs a paradigm shift in thinking about...The world needs a paradigm shift in thinking about climate change and what causes what. In my peer-reviewed paper "Planetary Surface Temperatures. A Discussion of Alternative Mechanisms" I provide proof that there is no runaway greenhouse effect on Venus - or any on Earth. Consider watching this 10 minute video, and maybe reading the paper. http://youtu.be/r8YbyfqUvfYDoug Cottonhttp://climate-change-theory.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-31362598334577934432012-12-13T21:28:47.652-06:002012-12-13T21:28:47.652-06:00Now that the leaked IPCC Draft Report for 2013 ind...Now that the leaked IPCC Draft Report for 2013 indicates something of a backdown, you may be interested in my climate analysis and projections as in Appendix 1 of <a href="http://principia-scientific.org/publications/psi_radiated_energy.pdf" rel="nofollow">my paper</a> published March 2012. You will need to open it to see the graphics and supporting links, but the text reads ...<br /><br />Q.1 How do you explain the fact that the Earth has been warming?<br /><br />Technically the Earth is currently in an interglacial period and the last few glacial periods have occurred at roughly 100,000 year intervals. This indicates the possibility of there being natural cycles, short and long, which appear to be related to astronomical orbital events. For example, the planet Jupiter has an effect on the eccentricity of the Earth's orbit in such a way that the difference in the distances between the Sun and the Earth at the aphelion and perihelion can vary (over many thousands of years) from just over 0% when its orbit is nearly a true circle, up to about 5% when it is elliptical. Such variations affect the mean distance and that will then affect the mean radiative flux over the course of a year.<br /><br />Many scientists also believe there is clear evidence of a 60-year cycle which may be related to the alignment of the planets Jupiter and Saturn every 59.6 years. This cycle appears to have been the main cause of the observed temperature increases which raised alarm in the 30 years or so leading up to the maximum in 1998. However, there is also a longer cycle which appears to be very approximately 1,000 years. The underlying trend in the rate of ncrease can be detected when a trend line is added to the plot below (from this site) which shows 30 year trend gradients.<br /><br />It appears that the mean rate of increase per decade has decreased from about 0.06oC early in the 20th century to about 0.05oC per decade in recent times, as you can see from the green trend line. Perhaps the 1,000 year trend will reach a maximum in the next 100 to 200 years and be 0.5 to 1.0oC warmer than at present. So natural trends can and do explain the historic climate record, right up to the current slight decline which is probably due to the 60 year cycle declining, but being mostly countered by the underlying upward trend of the 1,000 year cycle.<br /><br /><b>You will find an explanation in my new paper linked <a href="http://climate-change-theory.com" rel="nofollow">here.</a></b><br />Doug Cottonhttp://climate-change-theory.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-820570527003668244.post-26580196151398598642012-11-20T07:21:04.623-06:002012-11-20T07:21:04.623-06:00I first read this post on WUWT.
There is much of ...I first read this post on WUWT.<br /><br />There is much of interest there, but please confirm one state made parenthetically:<br /><br />'there is currently no observed empirical connection between CO2 and measured global temperatures'<br /><br />This is something I have been inquiring about for some time, and up to this point, have found no answer.<br /><br />If this is true, why hasn't it received more attention? It seems to me the the entire AGW ediface rests on making a causal relationship between rising levels of atmospheric CO2 and global temperatures.<br /><br />And there is not one shred of evidence for this?<br /><br />Please confirm this at osopolitico@hotmail.com<br /><br />Sincerely - Oso PoliticoAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com