Thursday, August 19, 2021

Net Zero threatens Sustainable Development Goals

 

Abstract

This paper begins by reviewing the relationship between CO2 and Millennial temperature cycles. CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures. Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. Solar activity as represented by the Oulu cosmic ray count is here correlated with the Hadsst3 temperatures and is the main driver of global temperatures at Millennial scales. The Millennial pattern is projected forwards to 2037. Earth has just passed the peak of a Millennial cycle and will generally cool until 2680 – 2700. At the same time, and not merely coincidentally, the earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science "consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to human civilization is clearly untenableThe cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy.  We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.   

 Net Zero threatens Sustainable Development Goals

 CO2 and Temperature

The mass of the atmosphere is 5.15 x 1018 tonnes. (1) The mass of atmospheric CO2 in 2018 was approximately 3 x 1012 tonnes. (2). Jelbring 2003  (3) in The “Greenhouse Effect as a Function of Atmospheric Mass “ says

“…the bulk part of a planetary GE depends on its atmospheric surface mass density..”

Stallinga 2020 (4) concludes: " The atmosphere is close to thermodynamic equilibrium and based on that we...…… find that the alleged greenhouse effect cannot explain the empirical data—orders of magnitude are missing. ……Henry’s Law—outgassing of oceans—easily can explain all observed phenomena.” CO2 levels follow temperature changes. CO2 is the dependent variable and there is no calculable consistent relationship between the two. The uncertainties and wide range of out-comes of model calculations of climate radiative forcing (RF) arise from the improbable basic assumption that anthropogenic CO2 is the major controller of global temperatures.

Miskolczi 2014 (5) in “The greenhouse effect and the Infrared Radiative Structure of the Earth's Atmosphere “says "The stability and natural fluctuations of the global average surface temperature of the heterogeneous system are ultimately determined by the phase changes of water.” Seidel and Da Yang 2020 (6) in “The lightness of water vapor helps to stabilize tropical climate” say These higher temperatures increase tropical OLR. This radiative effect increases with warming, leading to a negative climate feedback" The Seidel paper is based on model simulations.

Dinh et al 2004 (7)  in “Rayleigh-Benard Natural Convection Heat Transfer: Pattern Formation, Complexity and Predictability” made large scale experiments and numerical simulations based on the Navier- Stokes and energy equations to capture and predict the onset of, and pattern formation in Rayleigh-Benard thermal convection systems heated from below.

Eschenbach 2010 (8) introduced “The Thunderstorm Thermostat Hypothesis - how Clouds and Thunderstorms Control the Earth’s Temperature”. Eschenbach 2020 (9) in https://whatsupwiththat.com/2020/01/07/drying-the-sky  uses empirical data from the inter- tropical buoy system to  provide a description of this system of self-organized criticality in which the energy flow from the sun into and then out of the ocean- water interface in the Intertropical Convergence Zone  results in a convective  water vapor buoyancy effect and a large increase in  OLR This begins when ocean temperatures surpass the locally critical sea surface temperature to produce Rayleigh - Bernard convective heat transfer.

Figure 1 One day's Solar Energy Record (9 ibid)

The short-term energy flows involved in this process provide the negative feedback which has been the earth's natural thermostat since the Cambrian. This mechanism is further elucidated by Mulmenstadt J. Salzmann M. et al 2021 “An underestimated negative cloud feedback from cloud lifetime changes” (10 ) says “As the atmosphere warms, part of the cloud population shifts from ice and mixed- phased (cold) to liquid (warm) clouds. Because warm clouds are more reflective and longer lived, this phase change reduces the solar flux absorbed by the earth and constitutes a negative feedback.)

Hansen et al NASA 1981 in “Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide” (11) reviewed the data bases, algorithms and forward projections of six simple GCMs says:

"The global warming projected for the next century is of almost unprecedented magnitude. On the basis of our model calculations, we estimate it to be 2.5°C for a scenario with slow energy growth and a mixture of non-fossil and fossil fuels…… the predicted global warming for a given CO2 increase is based on rudimentary abilities to model a complex climate system with many nonlinear processes." 

The Scientific Report of the1985 UNEP organized Villach meeting (12) said:

"..... unequivocal, statistically convincing detection of the effects of changing CO2 and trace gas levels on climate is not yet possible.” yet, based on this report, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was set up, to examine the human contribution to global warming.

The First IPCC Assessment Report 1990 - Policymaker Summary of Working Group I science section (13) stated: " ...The unequivocal detection of the enhanced greenhouse effect from observations is not likely for a decade or more." In spite of this lack of empirical evidence the 1992 Rio meeting produced the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and its Agenda 21 (14). Agenda 21 was designed as an action plan with the aim of keeping greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that was supposed to prevent dangerous man-made global warming. The IPCC AR5 SPM says in Footnote 16 page 16 (15): No best estimate for equilibrium climate sensitivity can now be given because of a lack of agreement on values across assessed lines of evidence and studies.” The claim was nevertheless made that the UNFCCC actions proposed in Agenda 21 can control temperature by controlling CO2 levels.  

Fyfe et al 2016 in "Making sense of the early 2000s warming slowdown" (16) say: "Newly identified observational errors do not, however, negate the existence of a real reduction in the surface warming rate in the early twenty-first century relative to the 1970s–1990s. Hansen et al 2018 in “Global Temperature in 2017” (17) said "However, the solar variability is not negligible in comparison with the energy imbalance that drives global temperature change. Therefore, because of the combination of the strong 2016 El Niño and the phase of the solar cycle, it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus.”

 

Astronomical and Solar Activity Cycles

 

Earth’s climate is the result of resonances and beats between the phases of cyclic processes of varying wavelengths and amplitudes. At all scales, including the scale of the solar planetary system, sub-sets of oscillating systems develop synchronous behaviors which then produce changing patterns of periodicities in time and space in the emergent data. It is essential that the scale and granularity of the space- time data base selected for analysis be appropriate to the problem under investigation.

Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 pp 452,453, 458 (18) in “The Suns Orbit A.D.750 -2050.” provided the key commensurability relationships of planetary orbits and lap periodicities.  They regard the Saturn Jupiter Lap cycle of 19.859 years as "the pulse of the solar system." The added influence of Uranus and the other planets results in a synchronized system controlled by emergent combined astronomical and solar activity periodicities of 3 x 19.859   = 60 +/- years. and 16 or 17 x 60 = 960 - 1020 years. Three times the Uranus Saturn Jupiter lap periodicity = 953.2 years.

 Stefani et al 2019 (19) in "A Model of a Tidally Synchronized Solar Dynamo" focusses on the Schwab 11.0 +/- year alignment periodicities of the tidally dominant planets Venus Earth and Jupiter. The main emergent dynamo modes are dipole fields oscillating with a 22.14 period - the Hale cycle.

 


Fig. 2 Greenland Ice core derived temperatures and CO2 from Humlum 2016 (20)

Fig.2 shows that Earth has passed the warm peak of the current Milankovitch interglacial and has been generally cooling for the last 3,300 years. The millennial cycle peaks are apparent at about 10,000, 9,000, 8,000, 7,000, 2,000, and 1,000 years before now.  
Climate, and in particular precipitation, is dominated during the Holocene mainly by the Obliquity modulated by the Precession. J. H. C. Bosmans et al 2015 (21)"Obliquity forcing of low-latitude climate"   shows that obliquity induced changes in the summer cross-equatorial insolation gradient explain obliquity signals in low latitude paleo climate records more usefully than the classical 65 degree north insolation curve alone. Yi Liu et al 2015 (22) in "Obliquity pacing of the western Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone over the last 282,000 years "   " ... shows that the western Pacific ITCZ migration was influenced by combined precession and obliquity changes. The obliquity forcing could be primarily delivered by a cross-hemispherical thermal/pressure contrast, resulting from the asymmetric continental configuration between Asia and Australia in a coupled East Asian–Australian circulation system. "

The periodicities pertinent to current estimates of future global temperature change fall into two main categories:

a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity, obliquity and precession cycles and 

b)  Solar activity cycles with possibly multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales.

  


 Fig.3 Northern Hemisphere 2000 year temperature reconstruction and a Millennial Temperature Turning Point. (MTTP). (23,24)

Because of the data quality, record length and methods used, the NH Christiansen et al 2012 series was selected as the "type reconstruction" to represent the NH trends. (22) The de Vries, Maunder, Sporer and Wolf minima are noted. Important volcanic cooling events are marked with a V. (23) An MTTP  occurs at about 990. The cycles are asymmetric with a 700+/- year down-leg and a 300 +/- year up-leg.

 Solar Activity and Temperature Correlations

 

Fig 4 The NRLTSI2 Solar Activity - CET Relationship 1600- Present (25,26,27)

In Figure 4 the Roth & Joos Cosmogenic Index (CI) is used as the emergent proxy for the solar activity driver of the resulting emergent global and NH temperature data.

The CI designation here integrates changes in solar magnetic field strength, TSI, EUV, IMF, Solar wind density and velocity, CMEs, proton events, the BZ sign and changes in the GCR neutron count which modulates cloud cover and thus albedo. 

 The effect on observed emergent behaviors i.e. global temperature trends, of the combined effect of these solar and GCR drivers will vary non-linearly depending on the particular phases of the eccentricity, obliquity and precession orbital cycles at any particular time.

Figure 4 shows an increase in CI of about 2 W/m 2 from the Maunder minimum to the 1991 activity peak. This increase, together with the other solar "activity" variations modulate the earth’s temperature and albedo via the GR flux and varying cloud cover.

The emergent temperature time series trends of the combined orbital, solar and GCR drivers also reflect turning points, changes of state and important threshold effects created by the interactions of the underlying physical processes. These exogenous forcings are also simultaneously modulated by changes in the earth’s magnetic field and length of day.

The temperature increase since the1680s is due to the up- leg in the natural solar " activity" Millennial cycle as shown by Lean 2018 "Estimating Solar Irradiance Since 850 AD" (ibid). Figure 4 also shows the correlation between the CI driver and the Central England Seasonal Temperatures. (27). The 1650 – 1700 (Maunder), 1810 - 20 (de Vries/Dalton), and the 1890-1900 (Gleissberg) minima are obvious. The Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point (MSATP) at 1991 correlates with the Millennial Temperature Turning Point (MTTP) at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay because of the thermal inertia of the oceans. 
The CET in Figure 4 shows that this up-leg in the CET has an annual absolute temperature Millennial cycle amplitude of at least 16.5 +/- degrees C. Using the Millennial cycle lengths of Figure 3 at least that same amount of future cooling from the 2004 high is probable by the winters of 2,680-2700 +/-. These temperature changes correlate very well with the changes in energy flow from the sun shown in Figure 4 without any measurable effect of C02 levels.

Fig 5 Correlation of the last 5 Oulu neutron cycles and trends with the Hadsst3 temperature trends and the 300 mb Specific Humidity. (28,29)

The Oulu CR data shows the decrease in solar activity since the 1991/92 Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and peak There is a significant drop to a lower solar activity base level post 2007+/-.There is a new solar activity minimum at 2009. As in Fig.4 the MSATP at 1991 correlates with the MTTP at 2003/4 with a 12/13 +/- year delay. Short term temperature spikes are colored orange and are closely correlated to El Ninos.

 Temperature Predictions

 Loeb et al 2018 in  "Changes in Earths Energy budget during and after the "Pause" in Global Warming"(30) provided an important observational database from 1998 - 2018.This

showed that a reduction in global mean reflected short wave top of atmosphere flux in the three years following the hiatus resulted from decreased low cloud cover which added to the 2016 El Nino temperature spike.

Figure 5 also predicts SST3gl and Specific Humidity trends from 2022 – 2037. (Blue and Purple dashed lines) The secular change in the Solar Activity to a lower base level after 2007 projects to 2021. The SST3gl general decline trend from 2021 to 2037 is here projected as the reverse of the increase from  1983 – 2004 with the cycle 24 peak projected  at 2028 and the cycle 25 peak at 2037.

Kitiashvili,I 2020 (31)  estimated that Solar Cycle 25 will start after the 2020 solar minimum  and will be weaker than Cycle 24.The maximum of Cycle 25 solar activity should be in 2024/25 with a sunspot number of about 50 +/- 15. The correlative HadSST3gl anomaly is 0.05C. in 2037.The intervening solar activity minimum would be at 2031.

Other climate measures show longer delays from the 1991 Solar Activity Turning Point. The arctic sea ice area and volume minima turning point delay is 21 yrs at 2012 which is about one Hale cycle. (32) A possible Millennial sea level peak and turning point might was reached in September 2019+/-. There has been no net sea level rise from then up to March 2021(33) This delay, 28/30 years, is close to one half of the fundamental 60 year cycle. Fairbridge and Sanders 1987 (Ibid)

As shown in references 1-10 above, the anthropogenic CO2 Radiative Forcing concept on which the climate models’ dangerous warming forecasts are based is inappropriate for analyzing atmospheric temperature changes. Solar sourced energy flows in and out of the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone provide the net negative feedback which has kept the earth within a narrow temperature range for the last 600 million years. The effects on temperature and climate of major meteorite strikes, periods of flood basalt outpourings and major volcanic eruptions are superposed on this solar sourced background. The sample lengths in the IPCC reported model studies are too short. The models retrofit from the present back for only 100 – 150 years when the currently most important climate controlling, largest amplitude, "solar activity" cycle is millennial. The relevant system for comparison should include the entire Holocene.

Most importantly the models make the fundamental error of ignoring the very probable long- term decline in solar activity and temperature following the Millennial Solar Activity Turning Point and activity peak which was reached in 1990/91 as shown in Figure 5. The correlative UAH 6.0 satellite TLT anomaly at the MTTP at 2003/12 was + 0.26C. The temperature anomaly at 2021/8 was + 0.18 C. (34) This satellite data set shows that there has been no net global warming for the last 17 years.  As shown above, these Renewable Energy Targets in turn are based on model forecast outcomes which now appear highly improbable. Science, Vol 373,issue 6554 July2021 in”Climate panel confronts implausibly hot models” (35) says “Many of the world's leading models are now projecting warming rates that most scientists, including the modelmakers themselves, believe are implausibly fast. In advance of the U.N. report, scientists have scrambled to understand what went wrong and how to turn the models...... into useful guidance for policymakers. “It's become clear over the last year or so that we can't avoid this,” says Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.”

The global temperature cooling trends from 2003/4 – 2704 are likely to be broadly similar to those seen from 996 – 1700+/- in Figure 2. From time to time the jet stream will swing more sharply North – South. Local weather in the Northern Hemisphere in particular will be generally more variable with, in summers occasional more northerly extreme heat waves droughts and floods  and in winter more southerly unusually cold snaps and  late spring frosts.

 Population and Sustainability

  Zaichun Zhul et al 2016 (36) in Greening of the Earth and its drivers report “a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated Leaf Area Index (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area from 1982 - 2009. ………. CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend.” Policies which limit CO2 emissions or even worse sequester CO2 in a quixotic attempt to mitigate these natural cycles would decrease agricultural food production and are antithetical to the goals of feeding the increasing population and bringing people out of poverty

Additionally, the tropical rain forests and tropical oceans are the main source of the atmosphere's water vapor and the rainfall essential to life and agriculture on land. Potable and agricultural water supplies are now competing and stretched to their limits in many areas because of the global population increase.

 Spillias et al 2021 state " the energy systems built to power the future will play a critical role in determining the extent to which we are able to achieve most, if not all, the prescribed development goals. (37)  

The UNFCCC, IPCC' and National Governments’ reliance on Renewable Energy Targets to control CO2 and mitigate climate change by transitioning away from fossil fuels is at odds with Diaz,S. et al The Science policy forum  " Set ambitious goals for biodiversity and sustainability (38) which says that Global biodiversity policy is at a crossroads. 

"First, multiple goals are required because of nature's complexity, with different facets—genes, populations, species, deep evolutionary history, ecosystems, and their contributions to people—having markedly different geographic distributions and responses to human drivers…………. As a result, there is no single goal based on any one facet that would, if realized, guarantee by itself that the necessary outcome for the other facets would be achieved”. These differences mean that global temperature limits and targets as set in the Paris accords to ameliorate future temperatures are in practice useless when formulating policies relative to adaptation to the actual real world problems. These require more local inputs for particular coastlines, different major river basins and mountain range limited ecosystems.

 Modern industrial civilization, especially in large Megacities, cannot function for long without continuous adequate power supply, and functional global food and basic resource supply chains.The 2021 Texas freeze killed about 200 people. Long lines for food and water provided a red-flag warning of the present dangers of a cooling world. Not coincidentally, the Earth has now reached a new population peak which brought with it an associated covid pandemic, and global poverty and income disparity increases which threaten the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals. Cross border migration is out of control across the Rio Grande into the USA, and from West Africa via Libya to Europe and across the English channel. Loss of wildlife habitat to human habitation, cattle-ranching and ocean overfishing have accelerated species extinctions worldwide. Agricultural monocultures based on chemical fertilizer and insecticides have already decimated bird populations in the northern hemisphere.  Rosenberg et al 2019 in "Decline of the North American Avifauna" (39) says: "Integration of range-wide population trajectories and size estimates indicates a net loss approaching 3 billion birds, or 29% of 1970 abundance ...Steep declines in North American bird populations parallel patterns of avian declines emerging globally.”

The UNEP, IPCC and UNFCCC “consensus” scientific community’s unwarranted focus on future CO2 levels, and global warming mitigation via “net zero” energy policies has been adopted by most Governments, Mainstream Media, NGOs and leading politicians as the basis for climate and energy policy. At COP 26 Individual Governments will decide where and how, given their different political systems and demographics, they will draw the line between accommodation for other species and natural ecosystems and poverty reduction, economic development and consumer consumption levels.

Humanity contends with all other species including COVID 19 and its variants in a Darwinian struggle for lebensraum. During the last major influenza epidemic world population was 1.9 billion. It is now 7.8 billion+/. The establishment science “consensus" that a modelled future increase in CO2 levels and not this actual fourfold population increase is the main threat to civilization has no empirical basis. The cost of the proposed rapid transition to non- fossil fuels would create an unnecessary, enormously expensive. obstacle in the way of the effort to attain a modern ecologically viable sustainable global economy. We must adapt to the most likely future changes and build back smarter when losses occur.

 Acknowledgements

 I would like to thank my wife Hilary for the adaptation of figures 3 – 5 for publication.

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38   Diaz,S. et al The Science policy forum  " Set ambitious goals for biodiversity and sustainability.   Science. 2020   Oct 23;370(6515):411-413. doi: 10.1126/science.abe1530. PMID: 33093100

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Wednesday, January 23, 2019

The CO2 Derangement Syndrome - the Millennial Turning Point and the Coming Cooling'


A very large majority of establishment academic climate scientists have succumbed to a virulent infectious disease - the CO2 Derangement Syndrome. Those afflicted  by this syndrome  present with a spectrum of symptoms .The first is an almost total inability to recognize the most obvious Millennial and 60 year  emergent patterns which are trivially obvious in solar activity and global temperature data. This causes the  natural  climate cycle variability to appear frightening and emotionally overwhelming. Critical thinking capacity is badly degraded. The delusionary world inhabited by the eco-left establishment activist elite is epitomized by Harvard's Naomi Oreskes  science-based fiction, " The Collapse of Western-Civilization: A View from the Future" Oreskes and Conway imagine a world devastated by climate change.  Intellectual hubris, confirmation bias, group think and a need to feel at once powerful and at the same time morally self-righteous caused those worst affected to convince themselves, politicians, governments, the politically correct chattering classes and almost the entire UK and US media that anthropogenic CO2 was the main climate driver. This led governments to introduce policies which have wasted trillions of dollars in a quixotic and futile  attempt to control earth's temperature by reducing CO2 emissions.

The origins of this disease can be traced to Ehrlich's 1968 book "The Population Bomb". He said:
" In the 1970s hundreds of millions of people will starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now. At this late date nothing can prevent a substantial increase in the world death rate" 
Such apocalyptic forecasts are a prime indicator of the CO2 Derangement Syndrome. In "The Limits to Growth" 1972 the disease metamorphosed first into a search for "sustainability" and then rapidly into a war on CO2 . This is a bizarre turn of events because CO2 is the basis of all organic life and the increase in CO2 alone  is the cause of 25 % of the increase in world food production in the 20th century.
The UN and Sweden organized a meeting in 1972 in Stockholm to discus the interaction of humans with the environment. Maurice Strong was appointed  by his UN friend U Thant , to be  the General Secretary of the meeting. Strong, produced an incredibly detailed 109 point  action plan designed to give the UN input and even control over individual Government environmental  policies world wide. As  one of the actions, the United Nations Environmental Program  ( UNEP) was organized in 1973 with Strong himself as Executive Director.
Ten years later it was obvious that the predictions of imminent death and disaster were wrong but Hansen et al NASA 1981 in "Climate Impact of Increasing Carbon Dioxide" resurrected many of the doomsday establishment  scenarios :
"A sea level rise of 5 m would flood 25 percent of Louisiana and Florida,10 percent of New Jersey, and many other lowlands throughout the world. Climate models (7, 8) indicate that 2°C global warming is needed to cause 5°C warming at the West Antarctic ice sheet. A 2°C global warming is exceeded in the 21st century in all the CO2 scenarios we considered, except no growth and coal phaseout."
"The global warming projected for the next century is of almost unprecedented magnitude. On the basis of our model calculations, we estimate it to be 2.5°C for a scenario with slow energy growth and a mixture of nonfossil and fossil fuels. This would exceed the temperature during the altithermal (6000 years ago) and the previous (Eemian)interglacial period 125,000 years ago(53), and would approach the warmth of the Mesozoic, the age of dinosaurs"... Hansen said :"The trains carrying coal to power plants are death trains. Coal-fired power plants are factories of death."
…." if we burn all fossil fuels, we will destroy the planet we know. Carbon dioxide would increase to 500 ppm or more. We would set the planet on a course to the ice-free state, with sea level 75 metres higher."
For political and selfish career  reasons the  UNEP bureaucrats wanted to take control of the global economy. They realized that if they could use Hansen type forecasts to  show that the CO2 produced by burning coal and oil to make electricity and drive cars might cause a dangerous warming of the earth they would be able to scare Governments and peoples into writing laws giving the UN (and themselves) control over the world's economy by controlling the type of energy used and its price.
To this end in 1985 UNEP organized a meeting of scientists at Villach in Austria in 1985 to see if they could show that CO2 was dangerous. The scientific report said :
"Although the observed global-scale warming experienced over the past ~100 years is compatible with model estimates of the magnitude of the greenhouse effect, unequivocal, statistically convincing detection of the effects of changing CO2 and trace gas levels on climate is not yet possible. An important problem in the positive identification of a greenhouse gas effect on climate is to explain the medium to long time scale (~decades or more) fluctuations in the past record. Attempts to model such changes have, to date, suffered from a number of deficiencies."
By contrast the official summary statement  said:
"As a result of the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, it is now believed that in the first half of the next century a rise of global mean temperature could occur which is greater than any in man's history. "
The Villach report made two important recommendations. As one result the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was set up to select from the  evidence and from time to time produce reports which would show that CO2 was the main driver of dangerous climate change. A second recommendation resulted in a meeting in Rio in 1992 chaired by Maurice Strong himself which produced the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,later signed by 196 governments.
The objective of the Convention is to keep CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that they guessed  would prevent dangerous man made  interference with the climate system.
This treaty is a comprehensive, politically driven, political action plan called Agenda 21 designed to produce a centrally managed global society which would control every aspect of the life of every one on earth.
It says :
"The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the
causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects. Where there are threats of serious or
irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty should not be used as a reason for postponing
such measures"
Apocalyptic forecasts  are used as the main drivers of demands for action and for enormous investments such as those in the new  IPCC SR1.5 report and in the work of Nordhaus who advocates a carbon tax .Nordhaus is quoted in the NYT as saying  "If we start moving very swiftly in the next 20 years, we might able to avoid 2 degrees, but if we don’t do that, we’re in for changes in the Earth’s system that we can’t begin to understand in depth. Warming of 4, 5, 6 degrees will bring changes we don’t understand because it’s outside the range of human experience in the last 100,000 to 200,000 years."
Nordhaus' science and economics basis is  discussed in "Projections and Uncertainties about Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies"  https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.20170046
which states:
 "The climate module has been revised to reflect recent earth system models. The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is based on the analysis of Olsen et al. (2012).The reasons for using this approach are provided in Gillingham et al. (2018). The final estimate is a mean warming of 3.1°C for an equilibrium CO2 doubling. The transient climate sensitivity or TCS (sometimes called the transient climate response) is adjusted to correspond to models with an ECS of 3.1°C, which produces a TCS of 1.7°C"
IPCCSR1.5 says
"C2. Pathways limiting global warming to 1.5°C with no or limited overshoot would require rapid and far-reaching transitions in energy, land, urban and infrastructure (including
transport and buildings), and industrial systems (high confidence). These systems transitions
are unprecedented in terms of scale, but not necessarily in terms of speed, and imply deep emissions reductions in all sectors, a wide portfolio of mitigation options and a significant
upscaling of investments in those options (medium confidence)………..
C2.6 Total annual average energy-related mitigation investment for the period 2015 to 2050 in
pathways limiting warming to 1.5°C is estimated to be around 900 billion USD2015 (range of 180
billion to 1800 billion USD2015 across six models17). This corresponds to total annual average
energy supply investments of 1600 to 3800 billion USD2015 and total annual average energy demand investments of 700 to 1000 billion USD2015 for the period 2015 to 2050, and an increase
in total energy-related investments of about 12% (range of 3% to 23%) in 1.5°C pathways relative
to 2°C pathways. Average annual investment in low-carbon energy technologies and energy
efficiency are upscaled by roughly a factor of five (range of factor of 4 to 5) by 2050 compared to
2015 (medium confidence)."
Those proselytizing  the warming scenario are closely following the UNFCCC Agenda 21 political plan of action. Bernie Sanders says :" Climate change is the single greatest threat facing our planet. The debate is over, and the scientific jury is in: global climate change is real, it is caused mainly by emissions released from burning fossil fuels and it poses a catastrophic threat to the long-term longevity of our planet. If we do nothing, the planet will heat up five to ten degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century. That would cause enough sea level rise from melting glaciers to put cities like New York and Miami underwater – along with more frequent asthma attacks, higher food prices, insufficient drinking water and more infectious diseases."
Democratic Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez proposed taxing the wealthy as high as 70% to fund a climate change plan she's pushing called the "Green New Deal." She also says "The world is going to end in 12 years if we don’t address climate change"
Fortunately, Reality is finally beginning to intrude upon the dangerous global warming meme.
Curry, 2017 in "Climate Models for the layman"  says:
"GCMs are not fit for the purpose of attributing the causes of 20th century warming or for
predicting global or regional climate change on time scales of decades to centuries,
with any high level of confidence. By extension, GCMs are not fit for the purpose of
justifying political policies to fundamentally alter world social, economic and energy
systems....."
Scafetta et al 2017 states: "The severe discrepancy between observations and modeled predictions......further confirms....that the current climate models have significantly exaggerated the anthropogenic greenhouse warming effect"
Hansen et al 2018 "Global Temperature in 2017" said "However, the solar variability is not negligible in comparison with the energy imbalance that drives global temperature change. Therefore, because of the combination of the strong 2016 El Niño and the phase of the solar cycle, it is plausible, if not likely, that the next 10 years of global temperature change will leave an impression of a ‘global warming hiatus’.
 Page,  2017 in "The coming cooling: usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers." said:
 " This paper argued that the methods used by the establishment climate science community are not fit for purpose and that a new forecasting paradigm should be adopted." 
The reality is that Earth's climate is the result of resonances and beats between various quasi-cyclic processes of varying wavelengths.
It is not possible to forecast the future unless we have a good understanding of where the earth is in relation to the  current phases of these different  interacting natural quasi-periodicities which fall into two main categories.
a) The orbital long wave Milankovitch eccentricity,obliquity and precessional cycles which are modulated by
b)  Solar "activity" cycles with possibly multi-millennial, millennial, centennial and decadal time scales.

When analyzing complex systems with  multiple interacting variables it is useful to note the advice of Enrico Fermi who reportedly said "never make something more accurate than absolutely necessary".  The 2017 paper proposed a simple heuristic approach to climate science which plausibly proposes that a Millennial Turning Point (MTP)  and peak in solar activity was reached in 1991,that this turning point correlates with a temperature turning point in 2003/4, and that a general cooling trend will now follow until approximately 2650.
 The establishment’s dangerous global warming meme, the associated IPCC series of reports ,the entire UNFCCC circus, the recent hysterical IPCC SR1.5 proposals and Nordhaus' recent Nobel prize are founded on two basic errors in scientific judgement. First – the sample size is too small. Most IPCC model studies retrofit from the present back for only 100 – 150 years when the currently most important climate controlling, largest amplitude, solar activity cycle is millennial. This means that all climate model temperature outcomes are too hot and likely fall outside of the real future world. (See Kahneman -. Thinking Fast and Slow p 118) Second – the models make the fundamental scientific error of forecasting straight ahead beyond the Millennial Turning Point (MTP) and peak in solar activity which was reached in 1991.These errors are compounded by confirmation bias and academic consensus group think.
 See the Energy and Environment paper  The coming cooling: usefully accurate climate forecasting for policy makers. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/0958305X16686488

 and an earlier  blog version at http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2017/02/the-coming-cooling-usefully-accurate_17.html     See also  https://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2018/10/the-millennial-turning-point-solar.html
 and the discussion with Professor William Happer at  http://climatesense-norpag.blogspot.com/2018/02/exchange-with-professor-happer-princeton.html